EUROPE AND THE UK HAVE traditionally been hold-outs for manual gearboxes, but that trend is changing. Certainly in Australia, the preference is overwhelmingly for auto transmissions.
The number of new cars available in the UK with manual gearboxes has more than halved (down 55 percent) in the past six years.
CarGurus, a leading automotive marketplace in the U.K., analysed new models available over the past decade from the U.K.’s current list of the 30 most popular car brands.
Data shows that there are just 89 new models with manual gearboxes available in 2024, down 55 percent from the 10-year high in 2016 where customers could choose from 197 models. According to the analysis, the prevalence of models with manual transmission remained consistent between 2014 and 2018, varying by no more than 4 percent:
- 2014: 189
- 2015: 192
- 2016: 197
- 2017: 193
- 2018: 194
However, the decline became consistent after 2018. Since 2023, there has been an 18 percent decrease in new models available with a manual gearbox, down from 109 to 89. CarGurus predicts that at the current rate of decline, manual transmissions could be extinct by 2029, barring a few niche models.
Manufacturers that no longer offer any new models with manual gearboxes include Volvo, Mercedes, Jaguar, and Lexus.
Four of the U.K.’s current 30 most popular brands – Jeep, Land Rover, Mini, and Honda – now offer just one manual gearbox option in their range. Volkswagen offers the most new models with a manual gearbox option, with 10 to choose from, while Ford and Hyundai each offer six options within their respective ranges.
Along with the decline in new models with manual gearboxes, there has been a significant increase in the number of U.K. drivers taking automatic-only driving tests, according to Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA) data. During the 2012/2013 period, there were 87,844 automatic-only driving tests. A decade later (2022/2023), this increased by 269 percent to 324,064. Chris Knapman, Editorial Director at CarGurus U.K., commented, “Between the increasing consumer demand for cars with an automatic gearbox and the rapid expansion of new EV models coming to market, we could be approaching the end of the road for the manual gearbox.”
“Historically, manual gearboxes have found favour for their lower cost compared to automatics, as well as their more responsive nature and improved fuel economy. However, updates in technology mean that many modern automatics are at least as efficient as a manual alternative, and much more responsive than the systems fitted in years gone by.”
“It is likely that manual gearboxes will continue to hold a special place in the hearts of enthusiast drivers for the greater interaction they offer. And of course, manual cars will continue to be in strong supply on the used market in years to come. For those prepared to change gears themselves, opting for a manual car can also be a shrewd money-saving move, with our analysis showing prices for used models are up to 14 percent lower on average compared with an automatic.”